Brazil is home to about one-third of the world’s remaining rainforests, as well as 60% of the Amazon. Newly elected president, Jair Bolsonaro, threatens environmentally conscious politics. The new leadership has indigenous communities and environmentalists concerned about the fate of the Amazon rainforest in the upcoming years.

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Amazonian trees absorb a quarter of all the carbon in the planet’s land each year. ‘Carbon Sinks’ collect large amounts of CO2 that would otherwise be warming the planet at a drastic rate. For every tree cut down, the Amazon will shrink in size, causing it to be less capable of absorbing carbon. By allowing the industrial-scale felling of trees, dead trees will release into the atmosphere gigatons of CO2 stored inside them.

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During his campaign, Jair Bolsonaro proposed easing environmental regulations in order to spur economic growth. He views climate change as less of a scientific issue and more of a divisive and unproductive political conflict. He also supports weakening protections of the rain forest and indigenous rights by enacting fewer penalties for cutting down trees and delaying the growth of indigenous forest reserves. However, environmentalists argue that these actions would be a massive set back for Brazil and destroy the country’s climate goals from the past decade. Even the smallest increase in deforestation rates could alter water supplies in several neighboring countries and harm the farms he claims to be supporting.

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Stripping the Amazon land would be not only environmentally but economically ruinous too. Brazil’s major mining companies and agricultural exporters risk losing their international reputation as well as their strong presence in international markets. Ricardo Salles, Brazil’s newly elected environment minister, is currently under investigation for allegedly redrawing maps that would destroy protected lands for mining and factories. This investigation threatens the mining company’s credibility and risks further corruption of an already crippling industry.

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This month, his administration announced plans to construct a hydroelectric dam and power facility on the Trombetas River in an attempt to cut down on frequent power outages in nearby cities. Bolsonaro also hopes to fund a mile-long bridge over the Amazon River in the city of Óbidos. Lastly, his plan includes expanding the highway BR-163, a critical roadway for Brazilian exports of grain and soy.

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These three projects will impact not only environmentally protected areas of the rainforest but the indigenous tribes who live there. Broader concerns circulate Bolsonaro’s plans to expand agriculture into indigenous lands, start new infrastructure projects, and allow mining on public lands. Indigenous communities also express their concern that efforts to patrol and protect their lands from outside groups, such as the “Forest Guardians,” an indigenous volunteer group dedicated to stopping the invasion of illegal loggers, will be banned and persecuted. A rise in protest could likely lead to an uproar of violence and environmental devastation, making human rights activists anxious and on high alert.

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Another policy at risk is the “Forest Code,” a law initially passed in 1965 but recently updated in 2016. The Forest Code ensures that Amazon landowners protect legal reserves (L.R.) and areas of permanent preservation (APP) by forcing 35 to 80 percent of the property under native vegetation. It also statesthat the native vegetation in areas that are illegally deforested will be restored or compensated. This plan is a tool for restoring the relationship between environmental conservation and agricultural production growth. If not rigorously enforced, deforestation will rapidly increase in the Amazon, which cannot be afforded under the current administration.

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This regulation is a target for those who want environmental regulations to be more “flexible,” and to appease the country’s agribusiness lobby and environmental legislation opponents. Since taking office on January 1, Bolsonaro has dismantled several government divisions dedicated to climate change and named Cabinet members recognized for being openly hostile to the fight against global warming.

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According to an environmental research team in Brazil, Bolsonaro’s deforestation plan would release the equivalent of 13.12 gigatons of carbon from 2021–2030. In comparison to the five gigatons the U.S. released last year, this plan could have almost three times the annual carbon impact of the entire American economy. Based on the U.N.’s recent IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report, the policy would also use nearly 20 percent of a stable climate’s total remaining carbon budget. To supplement this plan, Brazil would have to cut its current annual deforestation rate by roughly two-thirds to comply with its Paris obligations.

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Last month, Bolsonaro decided to back out of Brazil’s offer to host the 25th United Nation’s 2019 Climate Change Conference of the Parties. However, not all environmental experts view this as a complete tragedy. Bolsonaro’s forerunners were still able to dramatically cut down Brazil’s carbon emissions from land-use by 63 percent –and environmentalists expect this number to continue increasing in the years to come. Some experts believe it would be “practically impossible” for Bolsonaro to pull Brazil out of the Paris Climate Accord since, unlike in the United States, the Paris Agreement was ratified by the Brazilian Congress, almost unanimously.

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On the night of Bolsonaro’s election, Greenpeace Brazil issued a statement calling on the new regime to stick to its Paris pledges and slow deforestation. With a long presidency ahead, climate regulations could see either a dramatic shift or a complete stand-still. The future cannot be determined, but one thing is for sure, Brazil’s citizens will fight to protect the priceless gifts of the Amazon and the native environment.